Turkey preserves neutrality to mediate in Ukraine crisis

As the tension between Russia and Ukraine over the Donbass region becomes increasingly worrying, Turkey has offered to mediate as a regional actor with close contact with both countries.

While concrete steps have yet to be taken in this direction due to Moscow’s cold approach, analysts underline Ankara’s potential to play a critical role in calming possible further crises by maintaining an impartial and pragmatist stance.

Being one of the rare NATO members having good political, economic and military relations with Russia, Turkey has been maintaining its neutrality and pragmatic approach since the escalation of tensions earlier this year while also continuing its position that supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and opposes the illegal annexation of Crimea, underlined Mehmet Çağatay Güler, a research assistant at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA).

According to Güler, Moscow perceives what has been happening in eastern Ukraine as Kyiv’s domestic matter, while it sees the developments in Crimea as its own domestic matter. In connection with this stance, Russia has said that there is nothing to mediate in eastern Ukraine since Russia has not been a part of it, Güler said.

Salih Yılmaz, an academic at Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University and the chair of the Ankara Russian Studies Institute, underlined Russia’s two main strategies in the ongoing Ukraine tensions. The first is to prevent the expansion of NATO in its borders by sitting at the bargaining table with the United States over Donbass. Another strategy of Russia is to guarantee the functioning of the NordStream-2 line through the Ukraine crisis and to conclude long-term gas contracts with European countries, according to Yılmaz.

“The United States, on the other hand, aims to sell its own gas to Europe in response to this strategy. As such, both Moscow and Washington are considering mutual gains,” he said.

While President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in October proposed Turkey’s mediator role for the crisis, he later elaborated by pointing out that with the consent of both parties, Turkey can offer facilitation, mediation or support in any format. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu also said that Turkey has been in contact with both Russia and Ukraine, noting that Ankara advised both sides to remain calm and de-escalate the situation.

In an initial response, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed Ankara’s offer while speaking to journalists in Moscow, saying: “The fact is Russia is not a party to the conflict in Donbass. It will be impossible to find solutions to the problem at such a summit.” On the other hand, Ukraine welcomed Ankara’s statements. “We will welcome any efforts that can help us to put an end to this war, to return Ukraine’s territories that are currently under Russian control,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told a news briefing.

Turkey’s mediator role
As Turkey knows that a crisis in Ukraine will affect the entire Black Sea region, it is making mutual suggestions and offering mediation for the two countries to make peace, Yılmaz noted, adding: “However, Russia does not intend to accept Turkey’s mediation as it is in control of the Donbass crisis. It is thought that such an acceptance will bring more losses than gains for Russia. The only interlocutor for Russia is to secure the gains we have mentioned by negotiating with the U.S.”

On the other hand, Turkey’s mediation offer includes important gains for Ukraine, Yılmaz said. “The inclusion of Turkey, a NATO member and one of the largest countries in the Black Sea, in the crisis is an achievement for Ukraine. From the Russian point of view, Russia does not see the need for a mediator for the Donbass, because the Donbass is already unofficially controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Russia also thinks that Turkey’s mediation can pull Turkey into the Ukrainian geography militarily.”

According to Yılmaz, if Russia fails to negotiate with the United States and the crisis turns into a hot conflict, then it may accept the mediation of Turkey or another country to secure its gains. “This mediation will come into play in a possible hot conflict with Russia’s annexation of new territories outside the current Donbass borders and Ukraine’s request for a cease-fire. Otherwise, in the current situation, Russia does not want any other country to be involved in the event.”

Güler also noted that Russia is disturbed by Ukraine’s purchase of Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey and voices its displeasure with it frequently.

“Turkey will not leave Ukraine completely alone because of its relations with Russia, and it does not take an open position against Russia due to its deepening relations with Ukraine. Until now, Turkey seems to be an impartial country with the potential to mediate and should continue to take a position on this axis by taking into account its national interests,” he added.

The crisis between Russia and Ukraine makes Turkey important for b