Chinese warplanes over the Taiwan Strait, nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, hypersonic rockets in North Korea: Military posturing has turned the Far East into a dangerous place.
First come the strains of the “Internationale,” and then the roar of the fighter jets. Six warplanes circle above the southern Chinese port city of Zhuhai before individual fighters break off from the group. One climbs upwards and flips upside down, two others swoop below. With the red, yellow and blue smoke shooting out of their tails, they draw fantastic patterns in the sky, the thunder of their engines mixing with the military band and the shouts of onlookers.
On the roof of a building at the edge of the airfield sits a glass enclosure in the baking hot midday sun. Inside are two men in uniform talking about the show outside. Only Russia and the U.S., they say, possess comparable fighter jets of their own production. “It shows the power of a vast country,” one of them says.
It is October 1, China’s National Day. Normally, the Zhuhai Airshow takes place every two years, but because of the pandemic, last year’s show was postponed. The spectacle is a powerful demonstration of the achievements of China’s arms industry – the perfect stage for the message that China’s deputy air force commander, Wang Wei, wants to send. In Washington, he says, they claim they need to invest more money to “intimidate” China. Wang’s response from Zhuhai: “If they aren’t afraid of us, then we’ll meet in the heavens.”
Indo-Pacific is a geo-strategic term. It defines a region that is home to more than half of humanity, that is extremely dynamic economically and through which a huge share of global trade is shipped. At the same time, it is a place where the interests of the two superpowers, China and the U.S., collide, along with the competing territorial claims of important regional powers and several unresolved conflicts.
No single country, no military alliance has ever exerted complete control over this entire region. The closest anyone has ever come was the Japanese Empire in World War II. But after defeating Japan in 1945, the U.S. was able to establish itself as the top power in the region, with lasting consequences: As part of Pax Americana, former war adversaries became allies, dictatorships transformed into democracies and once poverty-stricken nations have grown prosperous – from Japan and South Korea to Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore. Even Vietnam is a U.S. ally these days.
Washington would like to maintain this postwar state of affairs and expand its role as a Pacific power. Currently, America’s approach to the region is primarily a military one, with naval patrols and an expanded troop presence. But the U.S. is also looking to strengthen political alliances, economic partnerships and technical cooperation.
Beijing, meanwhile, is seeking to change the status quo and keep America at arm’s length. On the economic front, China has already found some success, having become the most important trading partner for almost all its neighbors. But for at least the last 10 years, Beijing has also been expanding its military influence, by upgrading its navy and air force and transforming islands in the South China Sea – which are also claimed by other countries – into heavily armed outposts.
China’s pressure has encountered resistance. In mid-September, Australia, Britain and the U.S. established a new military alliance called AUKUS. As part of the deal, Washington and London will supply Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines, marking a meaningful shift in the strategic balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.
But the AUKUS alliance – which resulted in the cancellation of a conventional submarine deal between France and Australia and raised disapproving eyebrows in Europe – is just one of many military projects in the region. Almost all countries that play a strategic role in the Indo-Pacific are investing in their militaries, including North and South Korea, India and Taiwan in addition to China and the U.S. And hard to foresee where the development might lead. It could result in the kind of Cold War balance of mutually assured destruction seen in postwar Europe. But the arms race in the Indo-Pacific could also drive this economically dynamic and politically fragile region of the world into a military confrontation.
What fears and ambitions are driving developments in this part of the globe? What strategic goals are being pursued by the countries involved?
Zhuhai, China
Space probes, rocket launchers, armored cars: The items on display at the Zhuhai exhibition run the full gamut. In Hangar 7, a father stands with his son in front of a metal cone that looks like an oversized, charred sugarloaf – the landing capsule of a Chinese spacecraft.
But the exhibition’s highlights are three aircraft that fly a bit closer to the ground. The first is the WZ-7 reconnaissance drone, which is similar to an American drone called “Global Hawk.” Then there is the PL-15E, an air-to-air rocket that can be fired from fighter jets and travels at four times the speed of sound. The hope is that the missile becomes a bestseller abroad – Pakistan has already placed an order. Then there is the J-20, a fifth-generation stealth jet presented in Zhuhai for the first time with a Chinese engine instead of a Russian one. China’s defense industry, which spent decades simply copying Soviet weaponry, now stands solidly on its own two feet.
