China’s surprise submarine move shows its growing power

Submarine sales are a powerful weapon in the game of international power and influence. China is increasingly combining it with the Belt and Road Initiative in ways which shape the geopolitical landscape. The latest surprise submarine supply illustrates this.

When a Chinese submarine entered the Malacca Strait on December 20, heading towards the Indian Ocean, there was speculation about where it was going. This was answered when it pulled into the Yangon River, Myanmar, on December 23. Literally the next day it was commissioned into the Myanmar Navy as UMS Minye Kyaw Htin.

The sale, or transfer, had not been announced in advance. It highlights the growing influence of China in the region and the role submarine sales play in the geopolitical arena.

And China’s impact on the world submarine market. China is now supplying 4 countries with submarines. More may follow.

Submarine Diplomacy

Buying submarines is not like cars, where you select a model, and pick from a catalogue of features. They are not bought off the shelf, instead each aspect has to be defined. The location where they are to be built, the degree of customization, crew training, and ongoing maintenance are all part of a typical deal. And there is always a geopolitical aspect, and often government-to-government negotiations.

And it is not simply commercial. Governments can supply submarines to help create, or reinforce, alliances. Or at least expect favorable future relations going forward. This is especially true if the submarines are provided free, or at a major discount. One way to do this is by supplying older submarines from their own inventory. It can be a win-win and limits the risk if politics change in the future.

The Chinese submarine for Myanmar is more complex than most in a few ways. Although China has been Myanmar’s main defense supplier for many years, it had not been in the frame for submarines. Instead, India and Russia had. Externally, it might be seen as a stab in the back to Indian efforts.

Myanmar has been trying to establish a submarine capability for about two decades. Exactly a year earlier on December 24 2020 the Myanmar Navy commissioned its first submarine, the UMS Min Ye Theinkhathu. Significantly, that submarine had been transferred by India, China’s immediate rival in the Indian Ocean region.

Both submarines are relatively old types, and both are second-hand. The Chinese one is a Type-035 Ming Class, and the Indian one is a Russian-built KILO class boat. Despite arriving second, the Chinese boat is hardly an upgrade over the Indian supplied one. In fact, the KILO is generally considered the more capable platform, although the exact details of their equipment fit are naturally harder to pin down.

So the sudden acquisition of an older Chinese boat is not about modernizing Myanmar’s capabilities. It is instead part of a bigger picture. China is presumably expecting to bag the follow-on order or more modern boats. And solidify its geopolitical position in the Bay of Bengal in the process.

Source: Naval News