Belarus becoming a ‘western military district’ of Russia

Security briefing to EU policymakers warns of growing threat to Baltic countries

Belarus is turning into a “military district” of Russia and is thereby an “active enabler” of the invasion of Ukraine, European policymakers were told after the Moscow-friendly regime was sanctioned for its role in the war.

A briefing by the EU’s in-house security analysts said the Belarusian regime’s reliance on Moscow since it was weakened by mass protests beginning in 2020 had led to it being more easily bent to Russia’s will.

Russia has used that opportunity to push for deeper military integration between the two countries, the briefing said, culminating in troop movements to Belarus that led to some of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine being launched from the country.

Meanwhile, changes to the Belarus constitution that dropped its formal neutrality and opened the door to hosting Russian nuclear weapons were pushed through in a referendum last month described as a sham by the EU.

The deepening of military co-operation between Russia and its former Soviet neighbour “is unlikely to be reversed”, wrote analyst Andras Racz in a paper published by the EU’s Institute of Security Studies.

“Instead, Belarus is apparently on the way to becoming a de facto extension of Russia’s western military istrict,” he said.

“The official removal of neutrality from the new constitution of Belarus is only rubberstamping a reality that Belarus has been rapidly heading towards since 2020, and that has now materialised violently and dramatically following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.”

Belarus has been brought under the sanctions umbrella by the EU, Britain and the US for what they describe as its enabling of the Russian onslaught on Ukraine.